Betting favorites was a good idea through the first four games of the Champions League knockout rounds.
Favorites won three of the first four games in the Round of 16 outright; the only non-win from a favorite came courtesy of Bayern Munich. The German giants had to fight back to get a 1-1 tie with FC Salzburg. If you had the tie you were extremely happy. The pregame odds of a tie were at +450.
Manchester City (-450) easily beat Sporting Lisbon and is assuredly in the quarterfinals. PSG (-105) got a stoppage time goal from Kylian Mbappe to beat Real Madrid, and Liverpool (+105) scored a 2-0 win at Inter Milan.
Four more games kick off on Tuesday and Wednesday as the first legs of the Round of 16 are completed. Each of the three rounds before the final are home-and-home sets and the away goals tiebreaker no longer exists.
Here are the odds for Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games via BetMGM. Will betting favorites be a profitable enterprise again? The home team is listed first in each of the matchups.
Villareal vs. Juventus (over/under 2.5 goals) [Tuesday]
Villareal sits sixth in the La Liga table while Juventus sits in an uncharacteristic fourth in Serie A and is nine points off the top.
Chelsea vs. Lille (2.5) [Tuesday]
Chelsea got back into the periphery of the EPL title race with Manchester City’s loss to Tottenham. Ligue 1 has been PSG and everyone else in recent years; getting two teams into the Round of 8 would be a huge upset.
Benfica vs. Ajax (2.5) [Wednesday]
Ajax is a sleeper contender for the Champions League title because of its style of play. That’s why it’s a -120 favorite on the road.
Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United (2.5) [Wednesday]
Man United (+210)
Manchester United is a very unpredictable side. And without the away goals rule, it’s worth wondering just how aggressive Atletico Madrid will be going forward.