This will be the final race at Auto Club Speedway on the 2-mile track before it undergoes renovations, so we start this week’s projections by celebrating some of the special moments that have taken place there.
Multi-time champions Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch got their first career NASCAR Cup Series wins at Auto Club, with Johnson’s coming in 2002 and Busch landing his in 2005. Meanwhile, four-time champion Jeff Gordon won the inaugural premier series race in 1997.
The wide, well-worn racing surface lends itself to multiple-groove strategies and plenty of stops on pit road for fresh tires. Active drivers with victories at Auto Club include Busch, with a series-leading four, Kyle Larson with two and one each for Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman.
Larson is the defending winner of this race and opened atop the odds board at BetMGM.
RELATED: Auto Club odds | Power Rankings
To figure out what it all means, we’re back with another edition of Advance to Victory Lane, sponsored by Advance Auto Parts. Our partners at Racing Insights will predict the winner and entire finishing order for Sunday’s Pala Casino 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Racing Insights utilizes an advanced statistical formula that weighs factors such as current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a winner and full race results.
NO BRAINER? Larson has finished in the top two in four of his eight starts at Auto Club Speedway, including two wins. He has five career wins on 2-mile tracks.
USUALLY RELIABLE: Denny Hamlin had a streak of three straight top-10 finishes at Auto Club before coming in 15th last year because of an overheating issue.
POINTS, POINTS, POINTS: Joey Logano earned 103 points on the West Coast swing of races in 2022, which was third to Larson (113) and Tyler Reddick (109).
Projections updated on Wednesday, Feb. 22:
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTION FOR THE PALA CASINO 400
|
Finish |
Car No. |
Driver |
|
1 |
5 |
Kyle Larson |
|
2 |
11 |
Denny Hamlin |
|
3 |
22 |
Joey Logano |
|
4 |
19 |
Martin Truex Jr. |
|
5 |
12 |
Ryan Blaney |
|
6 |
4 |
Kevin Harvick |
|
7 |
6 |
Brad Keselowski |
|
8 |
3 |
Austin Dillon |
|
9 |
24 |
William Byron |
|
10 |
8 |
Kyle Busch |
|
11 |
9 |
Chase Elliott |
|
12 |
99 |
Daniel Suárez |
|
13 |
1 |
Ross Chastain |
|
14 |
16 |
AJ Allmendinger |
|
15 |
14 |
Chase Briscoe |
|
16 |
48 |
Alex Bowman |
|
17 |
10 |
Aric Almirola |
|
18 |
2 |
Austin Cindric |
|
19 |
43 |
Erik Jones |
|
20 |
20 |
Christopher Bell |
|
21 |
45 |
Tyler Reddick |
|
22 |
17 |
Chris Buescher |
|
23 |
47 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
|
24 |
23 |
Bubba Wallace |
|
25 |
41 |
Ryan Preece |
|
26 |
34 |
Michael McDowell |
|
27 |
54 |
Ty Gibbs |
|
28 |
31 |
Justin Haley |
|
29 |
7 |
Corey LaJoie |
|
30 |
38 |
Todd Gilliland |
|
31 |
77 |
Ty Dillon |
|
32 |
21 |
Harrison Burton |
|
33 |
42 |
Noah Gragson |
|
34 |
51 |
Cody Ware |
|
35 |
15 |
J.J. Yeley |
|
36 |
78 |
BJ McLeod |
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