Racing Insights: Kyle Larson to go back-to-back at Darlington

The advance metrics correctly forecasted Kyle Larson‘s triumph in Kansas last week, but who could‘ve predicted it would come down 0.001 seconds to decide it? Once again, Racing Insights favors Larson this Sunday in the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).

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Larson won the Southern 500 last September, the most recent Darlington race. His 8.5 average running position (second) in 2024 and 10.83 average finish (third) are good indicators of why the metrics continue to favor him.

At Darlington, Larson‘s 9.4 average finish ranks third-best all time among drivers with more than two starts. In his six starts with Hendrick Motorsports at Darlington, Larson has posted three top-two finishes and led 270 laps. With two wins on the season, it‘s not hard to think Larson could soon match Denny Hamlin and William Byron in win totals.

Following Larson in the projections are Joe Gibbs Racing‘s Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., 23XI Racing‘s Tyler Reddick and Larson‘s Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott to round out the top five. William Byron, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch complete the projected top 10.

After a wild finish at Kansas, who knows what thrills will be in store for a throwback weekend at Darlington?

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

WILLIAM BYRON: Byron hasn’t had a top-10 finish since Talladega, but expect him to find his stride at Darlington. Byron’s 898 laps run in the top five and 1,083 laps in the top 10 both rank first in the Next Gen era. What’s more impressive is that with those good runs, he found ways to finish races at the track “Too Tough to Tame.” His 6.5 average finish at Darlington is also a series-best in the Next Gen era.

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick has become a crafty superspeedway racer with a Duel win at Daytona and a victory at Talladega, but what about a 1.33-mile track? In the Next Gen era at Darlington, Reddick has the second-best average running position (7.84) and second-best average finish (7.25).

CHASE ELIOTT: The 2020 champ has found some familiar ground so far this year. Over Elliott’s last six races, he’s tallied a win and five top-five finishes. In addition, Elliott owns the best average finish in the Next Gen era with 12.26. Not to mention, Hendrick Motorsports has won the last two races at Darlington.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: Keselowski currently has a streak of three top-10 finishes at Darlington. Plus, his career 11.4 average finish there is the eighth-best all-time among drivers with more than two starts. Keselowski was in contention for the win at Talladega a few weeks ago and could very well be in the mix this weekend.

NOAH GRAGSON: While there aren’t many Cup stats to go off of for Gragson, he has cracked the top 10 in each of the last three 2024 races and has started to find his footing at Stewart-Haas Racing. Darlington was a strong track for him in the Xfinity Series and it could click for him again.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE GOODYEAR 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.